Time Magazine recently published a feature called "The Top 10 Everything of 2009" that includes not only the top 10 movies, books and sports moments, but also the top 10 awkward moments (Balloon Boy edges out Kanye West) and the top 10 scandals (Gov. Mark Sanford wins; Tiger finishes a distant seventh).
Frankly, I don't think I have the energy to celebrate the best of anything in 2009 because - let's face it - this has not been a great year. The economy nearly collapsed, the unemployment rate skyrocketed and war escalated in the Middle East. Plus, here in Washington, D.C., the rancor between the Democrats and Republicans has been so bad that you wonder if they will ever agree on anything.
Instead, let's talk about a Top 10 List of Public Affairs Trends for 2010. In other words, what should public affairs professionals expect in the new year?
1.) The economy will remain the dominant political issue. The Recovery Act gave a shot in the arm to hiring, job retention and consumer spending, and it gave a brief reprieve to states struggling with fiscal crises. But Congress isn't likely to go down that road again. And states, in particular, will continue to make drastic cutbacks and look to the business sector for new taxes and fees. With the recovery in slow motion, the public won't be willing to consider other policy issues. Have you noticed that, since the economy tanked, polls show fewer people want healthcare reform, support the conflict in Afghanistan or believe that human activity causes climate change?
2.) Climate change legislation will be up for debate, but don't hold your breath. Actually, maybe we all should hold our breath because that would probably reduce CO2 emissions more than any laws likely to pass in 2010, an election year. But that doesn't mean there won't be a full-scale series of campaigns for and against such legislation. If you think healthcare reform has been contentious, climate change will not only feature skirmishes between industry sectors and political parties, but battles between companies, business groups and environmentalists.
3.) The outlook for the 2010 elections will change drastically between now and November. Just don't ask me in which direction it will change. If the economy doesn't get much better, the GOP will make solid gains in the House and Senate. This won't be because lots of Democrats or independents will vote differently than they did in 2008; they just won't vote. (Check out the analysis of who voted for new Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell - and who didn't show up at the polls.) On the other hand, if the economy stabilizes, the Democrats will hold their own in the fall elections.
4.) Public affairs budgets are likely to rise. Our new Washington Office Benchmarking Study (to be released next week) shows that - despite the weak economy and all the corporate cutbacks - staffing and budget levels in D.C. offices have remained stable. (And, as the saying goes, "Flat is the new up.") Companies in all industry sectors have come to realize the value of having a strategic public affairs function. As earnings slowly start to improve, more resources are likely to go to public affairs.
5.) There will be fewer Washington lobbyists in 2010. How is this possible if budgets are flat? The administration's efforts to put restrictions on federally registered lobbyists will cause many to delist themselves if they can prove they spend more than 80% of their time not being a lobbyist. This issue - and the White House's determination to change the way Washington works - aren't going away.
6.) It's about building support, not buying support. Companies and associations have learned that developing long-term allies and engaging them in grassroots efforts is more effective than lobbying alone. Social media provide wonderful tools for keeping people informed and involved. In addition, having experienced and knowledgeable in-house advocates often can have a greater impact than hiring the most expensive K Street lobbyists.
7.) Pressure will increase for greater transparency. The Obama administration recently introduced a series of reforms to make the federal government more transparent. Combine this with ongoing pressure on corporations to be more transparent about their financial practices, supply chain management and political involvement, and you can see that expectations for openness have increased everywhere. The Public Affairs Council has a new publication available on the subject, called "Opening Up: The Role of Transparency in Corporate Public Affairs."
8.) Newspapers will disappear even faster than we expect. You can expect several major dailies to abandon their print editions this coming year. According to the Audit Bureau of Circulations, newspaper circulation for the six months ending September 30 dropped 10.6 percent from the same period in 2008. Companies and non-profits without an online media relations strategy better develop one in a hurry.
9.) More companies will integrate their government relations and communications functions. Past studies from the Public Affairs Council indicate that fewer than half of American companies have government relations and PR staff report to the same person. Yet corporations are facing an increasingly complex world that demands consistency and clarity in action and communication. Companies that don't have combined departments need to have an integrated issues management system that helps them prioritize and track their reputational and public policy priorities.
10.) Expectations for CSR will increase. As I noted in last week's post, companies have lots of good business reasons for engaging in corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. However, with state, local and federal government agencies cutting back on services, people in need will look even more to the private sector to provide assistance.
Well, I've already listed 10 and I can still think of three or four more. But that's enough for now. Since I won't be posting a "Public Affairs Perspective" next week, please spend some time thinking of public affairs trends that you see coming in 2010 - and send them to me at blog@pac.org. I'll post the best of them (with credit to the contributors) in early January.
