It’s Election Time, and Many Americans Expect Deceit and Violence
October 2024
There’s a lot to be nervous about as the U.S. closes in on its November elections. The Council’s new Public Affairs Pulse survey, released in early October, finds that just 36% of Americans believe the 2024 elections will be conducted honestly and be open to all rightful voters.
What’s more, four out of 10 Americans (41%) believe there will be violent protests no matter who wins the presidential contest, and nearly half the country (49%) expects violence following a possible Donald Trump loss.
The Pulse survey, conducted each year in partnership with Morning Consult, surveyed 2,205 Americans in early September to study their views about business, government and society.
Only 25% of young adults (aged 18-34) have faith in the honesty and openness of the elections, but hopefulness increases with age. Forty-four percent (44%) of Americans aged 65 and older believe the elections will be both honest and open.
If the potential for election challenges and riots weren’t enough, more than two-thirds of Americans (68%) believe disinformation will affect the outcome of the elections. Only 4% believe disinformation won’t be a factor at all.
Concern about disinformation increases with age, education level and income. For example, while only 27% of those aged 18-34 believe disinformation will be a significant factor in the elections, 42% of Americans aged 65 and older believe it will have a major impact.
Most Likely Sources of Disinformation
The most likely sources of disinformation this year, says the Pulse survey, aren’t social media networks; they are (in order of magnitude) Republican candidates, the news media and Democratic candidates. In the 2023 Pulse survey, the two most likely sources of election disinformation were said to be social media and the news media.
In 2024, “Republican candidates” leapfrogged over those factors and — with a score of 40% — is now considered to be the most likely source of disinformation. Last year “Republican candidates” was selected as a major disinformation source by only 32% of respondents.
The news media is in second place in the 2024 survey with a score of 36%, down from 40% in 2023. Democratic candidates, like their counterparts in the GOP, also received a worse score for disinformation in 2024 (32%) than in 2023 (28%). This earned the Democrats the distinction as the third-most-likely source of disinformation about the elections.
All Business Sectors Experience Trust Decline
For major companies, the bad news in this year’s survey is a decline in trust across all major sectors, plus a greater willingness by the public to institute new business regulations. When asked whom they trust for political news and information, fewer Americans gave major companies high scores this year, which moved the business community from second place in 2023 all the way down to fifth.
Next to friends and family, the highest-rated source for political news and information was the Democratic Party, followed by associations, the news media, business, conservative groups and the Republican Party. (This may be the first time in the history of American opinion polling that a political party scored higher than the news media as a reliable source of political news.)
A careful examination of Pulse data also revealed a new trend related to trust in business. Republicans, despite their reputation for being pro-business, are much more likely than Democrats to label nine major industries as “more untrustworthy than average,” are more critical of business performance and service, and continue to strongly oppose corporate involvement in social issues.
What makes the GOP at least partially pro-business is that Republicans are consistently opposed to new regulations in the same nine industries they say they don’t trust. Democrats take the opposite stance; they consistently believe a sector is more in need of regulation than does the average American.
Lobbying Considered OK if You Explain Why
This year we posed a series of questions covering different reasons for a company to lobby elected representatives, regulators and other government officials. Previous surveys have shown that public acceptance of corporate advocacy varies widely depending on the purpose of that advocacy. While this year’s survey supports that conclusion, it also reveals growing skepticism of business lobbying in general.
According to the 2024 Pulse Survey, the most acceptable type of lobbying is advocacy designed to protect company jobs, which is supported by 54% of the public and opposed by only 18%. When we last fielded this question in 2019, 62% of respondents found this type of lobbying acceptable.
In second place was lobbying to create a level playing field with competitors, which was supported by 50% of respondents and opposed by only 19%. In third place was lobbying to support social causes, which was favored by 49% and opposed by 23%. The chart shows that those two lobbying types were supported by more than 50% of the public in 2019.
When one scrolls down the list of reasons for lobbying, it’s notable that all of them — including “lobbying to secure government funding or grants” — were deemed appropriate to varying degrees.
Both Republicans and Democrats Support PACs
Finally, political action committees (PACs) gained six percentage points in popularity this year, which means 57% of the American public now considers them an acceptable way to fund elections.
Americans have been remarkably consistent in how they rank different campaign finance strategies. For the seventh straight year, the most acceptable way to fund campaigns is for candidates to spend their own money, although that strategy has dropped three percentage points in popularity to 63%.
Holding steady in second place at 62% are individual contributions. In third place are PACs at 57%, followed by super PACs (45%) and the use of federal tax dollars to fund elections (37%).
When the data on PACs are sorted by political party, the numbers are striking: 61% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans now support PACs, and only 16% of Democrats and 18% of Republicans believe PACs should not be a source of campaign funding. Support is especially strong among Democratic men, of whom 65% now support PACs. Backing for PACs is strong among all age groups, including those aged 18-34 (55%) and 35-44 (56%).
Full results from the 2024 Public Affairs Pulse survey, plus data and analysis dating back to 2011, can be found at www.pac.org/pulse.
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