Election Impact: What Will the 2026 Elections Be About?
May 2025
Fundamentally, elections are fights to get the most votes. But beneath the surface, the campaigns are a battle for the conversation before anyone casts a ballot.
The hundreds of millions of dollars spent by the parties on campaign advertising every cycle are intended not just to persuade voters on a particular issue, but to get people to focus on an entire set of issues that benefit their candidates.
That’s a key reason that fundraising is such an important ingredient in elections, because having a financial advantage allows candidates and parties the opportunity to define the terms of the debate. It doesn’t guarantee victory, but any strategist would prefer to have the money edge.
“Elections are about what elections are about,” I heard my friend and former boss Stuart Rothenberg say dozens of times over the years.
So what will the 2026 elections be about? It’s too early to tell.
With 17 months to go, Republicans are hoping the 2026 elections are about the fulfillment of a mandate that they believe voters gave them in 2024. But they also want the midterms to be about men playing in women’s sports, violent criminal immigrants running free in the streets while cashing government checks, the Biden family and the Democratic Party brand.
Because if the 2026 elections are about whether voters like or dislike Democrats, Republicans are going to do very well next year. The Democratic Party has a 29% favorable and 54% unfavorable rating, according to an early March SSRS poll of adults for CNN. That’s the party’s lowest favorable rating since at least 1992.
Overall, Republicans plan to position themselves, once again, as political outsiders trying to shake up the status quo, while trying to portray Democrats as the defenders of a government that lacks the trust of the people. That has been part of Donald Trump’s electoral success for so many years.
But the default analytical position should be that midterm elections are about the economy and a referendum on the party in power.
Four years ago, Democrats planned to frame the 2022 midterms as a choice between them and an unpopular Trump, who consistently interjected himself into the national conversation. “Voters who aren’t excited about what Democrats have done with their power may choose to hold their nose and support them when reminded of Trump’s tenure,” I wrote for Impact.
In the end, it didn’t really work according to plan for Democrats as historical midterm trends prevailed in the House. Republicans gained nine seats and won the majority.
In 2018, President Trump wanted voters to focus on migrant caravans from Central America rather than the state of the country under Republican control. That didn’t really work either as Democrats gained 41 seats in the House.
This time, Democrats are gearing up for a cycle with voters focused on executive branch overreach, high cost of living, cuts to entitlement programs, and a country and world in turmoil under GOP control. It probably won’t be that simple, considering breaking news events in 2026 will help guide voters’ attention. But that’s a more favorable set of issues for their party.
Republicans should be wary about the early trajectory of the cycle, with Trump’s job rating on an initial decline, unless economic conditions and voter sentiment improve. Because even if the GOP has a financial advantage, it’s tough to convince voters that things are going well if they’re not, or divert voters’ attention from kitchen table issues if they aren’t satisfied with their day-to-day life.
Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. You can also hear more on the Inside Elections Podcast. His email address is [email protected].
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The hundreds of millions of dollars spent by the parties on campaign advertising every cycle are intended not just to persuade voters on a particular issue, but to get people to focus on an entire set of issues that benefit their candidates.
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