Election Impact: How Will Appointed Senators Affect the Midterm Elections?
January 2025
Democrat George Helmy served a forgettable 108 days as the appointed senator from New Jersey at the end of 2024. And it might be easy to overlook senators who did not win high-profile races for their seat. But it would be a mistake to dismiss everyone who is appointed to the Senate, because many of them go on to consequential careers.
While some tenures are extremely short, including South Carolina Democrat Alva Lumpkin’s 10 days in office in the summer of 1941, or Minnesota independent Dean Barkley’s 59 days following the death of Paul Wellstone in 2002, others stick around much longer.
Alaska Republican Ted Stevens served in the Senate for 40 years after being appointed. North Dakota Democrat Byron Dorgan and Hawaii Democrat Daniel Akaka served at least two decades. Walter Mondale of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party served a dozen years in the Senate after being appointed and went on to four years as vice president under President Jimmy Carter.
Two hundred and eight senators have been appointed since the direct election of senators became the norm via the 17th Amendment in 1913, including the two newest senators. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed state Attorney General Ashley Moody to replace Marco Rubio, who left to become President Donald Trump’s secretary of state, and Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted to replace Vice President J.D. Vance.
Roll Call Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick and I walk through the beginnings and challenges of the 13 current senators who began their tenures with an appointment in a recent episode of his Political Theater podcast. Some of them are familiar names in D.C. circles who have developed into influential members. (Side note: Jason is a keynote speaker at the Council’s Advocacy Conference, Feb. 2-5 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.)
Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski is considered one of the chamber’s swing votes. Mississippi Republican Roger Wicker was in the spotlight recently during the Pete Hegseth confirmation hearing as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Majority Whip John Barrasso of Wyoming is the second-highest ranked Republican in the Senate. All began their Senate careers with an appointment, as have the incoming chairs of both the National Republican Senatorial Committee (Tim Scott of South Carolina) and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (Kirsten Gillibrand of New York), who are in charge of maintaining or regaining the majority.
When associations or corporations are evaluating whether to invest resources into an appointed senator, the natural question is, how long are they going to be around?
Historically, it’s a mixed bag. Of the 206 appointed senators before Moody and Husted, roughly one-third won at least one election after their appointment, one-third of them lost, and the other third, sometimes referred to as “seat warmers,” did not seek election immediately after their appointment.
Among the current senators, their most difficult elections came in subsequent primaries. Michael Bennet fended off a Democratic primary challenge from state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in Colorado in 2010. Brian Schatz won the 2012 Democratic primary by less than 1 percent of the vote in Hawaii after he was appointed against his predecessor’s dying wish. In Alaska, Murkowski won her first primary after being appointed by her father, but lost six years later.
It’s too early to tell whether Moody or Husted will face competitive primaries. At a minimum, they’ll serve two years until their special elections in 2026. Their electoral fate will likely depend on whether they have Trump’s support, which probably hinges on their loyalty to him.
As an appointed senator, Moody and Husted will enjoy the perks of incumbency, including support of the party establishment. Their presence on committees will give them fundraising opportunities unavailable to run-of-the-mill Senate candidates. But being connected to the establishment can be a scarlet letter in GOP primaries. Luther Strange, known as “Big Luther,” lost the 2017 special GOP primary to grassroots favorite Roy Moore, who then allowed Democrats to pull off a rare win in Alabama.
The good news for the GOP is that Florida and Ohio have been trending Republican. So if Moody or Husted were to lose their primary, it wouldn’t likely jeopardize the seat, except under extraordinary circumstances. Overall, Republicans are early favorites to hold the Senate majority in 2026.
Further ahead, there are always other potential appointments on the horizon.
In Kentucky, there’s a chance Sen. Mitch McConnell doesn’t finish his term. According to state law, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear would have to choose from a list of three candidates of the same party given to him by Republicans. GOP Sen. Marsha Blackburn is the early favorite to be elected governor of Tennessee in 2026. She would get to appoint her successor, who could be Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs.
But the 6-foot-8 former professional wrestler better hope that height isn’t kryptonite for the appointed senators after the 6-foot-9 Strange went down to defeat.
Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. You can also hear more on the Inside Elections Podcast. His email address is [email protected].
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When associations or corporations are evaluating whether to invest resources into an appointed senator, the natural question is, how long are they going to be around?
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