Maine’s 2nd District. Rep. Jared Golden is one of 13 Democrats to represent a district where Trump finished ahead of Harris. Golden won re-election with 50% while Harris received just 44% at the top of the ticket.

But Golden could run for governor. From his perspective, it’s easier to get elected statewide in Maine (where Harris won by 7 points) than to continue to run for re-election in his rural district. But if Golden chooses to leave his seat to run for something else, Democrats will be hard-pressed to find another candidate who can replicate his electoral success. Democrats can’t afford to lose many (or any) of their own seats if they are going to net the three seats necessary for a majority. An open seat here would be a top Republican takeover opportunity.

Texas’ 34th District. Trump narrowed a 14-point loss in 2020 to a 4-point loss in 2024 in this South Texas seat. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez won re-election by just 2.6 points last cycle and if the migration of Hispanic voters from Democrats to Republicans continues, then the congressman could be in a lot of trouble.

There are plenty of questions about who Republicans will nominate (will former Rep. Mayra Flores run for a third time?) and if the Trump coalition is transferable to other GOP candidates when he’s not on the ballot. But the broader voter trends and narrow majority in the House make this a race to watch.

Colorado’s 8th District. Since its inception prior to the 2022 elections, the 8th District has been one of the most competitive seats in the country. Democrat Yadira Caraveo won one of the closest races in 2022 and Republican Gabe Evans defeated her in one of the closest races of 2024.

Similar to the country overall, there was a slight shift toward Trump last cycle. Even though the district hadn’t been drawn yet, President Biden would have finished ahead of Trump by 4 points in 2020, but Trump edged out Harris by 2 points in 2024. This is the type of district Democrats probably need to win in 2026 in order to win the majority.

Minnesota’s 2nd District. Democratic Rep. Angie Craig has been proven to be a strong incumbent. Despite being a consistent GOP target each cycle, Craig has won re-election three times after knocking off a Republican incumbent in 2018. In 2024, she won by more than a dozen points.

Her suburban Twin Cities district has a Democratic lean to it (Harris finished ahead of Trump by 6 points) and there will be races initially rated as more competitive than this one at the beginning of the cycle. But if Craig runs for the Senate, an open seat could be a challenge for Democrats to defend. Craig only won by 5 points in 2022, so Democrats can’t take it for granted. Democrats can’t lose Democratic-leaning seats and have a realistic chance of winning the majority, so if they are spending time and money defending this seat, then that’s good news for Republicans.

Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. You can also hear more on the Inside Elections Podcast. His email address is [email protected].