Election Impact: How Donald Rumsfeld Helps Analyze the Midterm Elections
October 2025
Donald Rumsfeld, former secretary of defense and former White House chief of staff, hasn’t served in an administration in almost 20 years. He hasn’t even been alive for four. But one of his famous quotes is a useful framework for analyzing the upcoming midterm elections.
“As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know,” Rumsfeld said back in 2002.
Even though it sounds like a bunch of jargon or a politician’s way of wiggling out of a real answer, it can help explain the state of the 2026 elections with a year to go.
Known Knowns
After a dozen election cycles, I’ve gotten used to hearing some of the same phrases over and over when it comes to the so-called off-year. “It’s too early to know anything.” Or “two years is an eternity in politics; anything can happen.” But some things can be known, even early on.
Fundamentals matter, and some states and districts are so evenly divided that they are almost guaranteed to be competitive. At the beginning of January, Inside Elections identified five states as Senate battlegrounds: Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina. Ten months later, those five states make up the core of the battle for the Senate majority.
Other states, including Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and Texas, have been added to the fringes of the Senate battlefield due to specific circumstances, but the basics of the fight for the majority have been known from the outset.
We also know that midterm elections are typically difficult for the party in power, particularly in the House. The president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections. And we know that President Donald Trump’s job rating is mediocre (44% approve and 52% disapprove, according to Nate Silver’s average) and unlikely to get remarkably better. That can be a welcome combination for Democrats.
Known Unknowns
One of the biggest factors that fall into the known unknown category this cycle is redistricting.
We don’t know what the final congressional lines will look like in at least seven states: Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah. We know Democrats drew a new map in California but don’t know if voters will approve it in November and don’t know whether Democrats will successfully delay the implementation of the new map in Missouri. And we don’t know whether the Supreme Court will nullify the Voting Rights Act and put another dozen or so districts in the uncertain category.
When analyzing elections, it’s helpful to know where a race is happening and who is running. Right now, those pieces are unknown in a consequential number of seats.
Redistricting also means we don’t know how many seats Democrats need to win next November. We know Democrats technically need a net gain of three House seats to get to 218 and regain the majority, but don’t know how much higher that number will be in practice until we know how many districts Republicans redraw to give themselves a significant advantage.
There are also some micro known unknowns that will affect specific races. Will Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola run for governor or the Senate in Alaska? In Texas, will Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton or Rep. Wesley Hunt win the GOP Senate primary?
More broadly, we know that we don’t know what the broader national political environment will be next year. Voters’ appetite for change will be determined by their feeling about the direction of the country and state of the economy. If voters are dissatisfied or angry about the status quo, Republicans are more likely to be held responsible as the party in control of government. But until we get closer to next fall, this piece is firmly in the known unknowns.
We also don’t know whether the coalition that elected Trump in 2024 will turn out to vote for other Republicans in 2026 when he’s not on the ballot. The dynamic is not unique to Trump. Democrats struggled with it when Barack Obama was president.
Unknown Unknowns
Unknown unknowns is the trickiest category, from an analytical perspective. It’s impossible to predict breaking news events such as natural disasters, deaths of politicians or international crises, let alone their political fallout.
It’s like when people ask me to identify surprise races or predict future developments. It’s a valid and legitimate question, but if I knew what surprises were coming, they wouldn’t be surprises. All I know is that there are unknown unknowns. And those events can dominate the news and cause voters to reprioritize the issues they care about.
With 12 months to go before the midterms, the known knowns seem to favor Senate Republicans and House Democrats, but the known unknowns could boost Senate Democrats’ and House Republicans’ chances of success. And those unknown unknowns are truly a wild card.
Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. You can also hear more on the Inside Elections Podcast. His email address is [email protected].
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When analyzing elections, it’s helpful to know where a race is happening and who is running. Right now, those pieces are unknown in a consequential number of seats.
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