Election Impact: Three States That Will Decide the 2026 Midterm Elections
July/August 2025
With narrow Republican majorities in the House and Senate, neither party can take any seats and races for granted anywhere in the country.
But a trio of states, California, Iowa and Michigan, each packed with consequential contests, will go a long way in determining whether Democrats can claim new territory in Congress in 2026.
Arguably, the most compelling state of the cycle is Michigan. With competitive statewide contests for governor and Senate, five House races rated as competitive by Inside Elections, and two more House races with interesting primary contests, it’s hard to match the Wolverine State’s impact on the election cycle.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited, making it more difficult for Democrats to retain the state’s top office. An average Democrat has a 4.6-point advantage statewide, according to Inside Elections Baseline, but Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris in 2024 and the governorship has reliably flipped between the parties since the early 1980s. The last time a candidate succeeded a governor of their own party through an election was 1960. This cycle, both parties have competitive primaries (including Rep. John James on the Republican side) and Democratic Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an independent complicates the general election.
Michigan is also hosting a competitive Senate race. The seat is open because Democratic Sen. Gary Peters decided not to run for reelection. Democrats have a competitive primary between Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, with state Rep. Joe Tate in a lower tier. It looks like Republicans have avoided a competitive primary now that Rep. Bill Huizenga has ruled out a bid, and the party continues to rally behind former congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers.
Overall, Democrats face a difficult climb to gain the four seats necessary for a Senate majority. But it’s nearly impossible to see them doing it without holding all of their own vulnerable seats, including Michigan and Georgia.
Michigan is also a hotbed of serious House contests Democrats need to gain just three seats for a majority, and the 7th District (represented by GOP Rep. Tom Barrett) and 10th District (open because of James’ run for governor) are near the top tier of takeover targets. The 4th District would get more competitive if Huizenga doesn’t run for reelection. Democratic Reps. Hillary Scholten (3rd District) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (8th District) are also vulnerable, depending on the circumstances of their races and the national dynamic of the cycle. A net gain of at least a seat in Michigan would give Democrats a chance nationwide.
In California, there’s no Senate race this cycle and the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is not particularly interesting in the general election, but 12 competitive House elections put the Golden State at the epicenter of the fight for the House majority.
Democratic Reps. Adam Gray (13th District) and Derek Tran (45th) are locked in two of the 11 toss-up races nationwide. They represent the type of race that Democrats need to win (and hold) in order to have a fighting chance at the majority. But they aren’t the only vulnerable Democrats in California.
Rep. Dave Min’s race in the 47th is rated Tilt Democratic, while Reps. Jim Costa (21st), George Whitesides (27th) and Mike Levin (49th) are in the Lean Democratic column. Republicans have been making rapid gains in the 25th, represented by Democrat Raul Ruiz, but that race is rated Likely Democratic for now, on the edge of the House battleground.
Republicans have a quartet of vulnerable incumbents. David Valadao has a proven ability to win tough races in the 22nd District, but also lost reelection in Trump’s first midterm. His race this cycle is currently Lean Republican. Southern California Reps. Young Kim (40th) and Ken Calvert (41st) are also in Lean Republican races. Democrats would need a lot to go right nationally and locally to defeat Kevin Kiley in the 3rd District, which is rated Likely Republican.
Overall, the party that gains seats out of California likely has the upper hand at control of the House.
Iowa isn’t as big as California or Michigan, but it’s a key state in the midterm elections. There are so many consequential races that it’s almost easier to find offices that aren’t competitive.
GOP Sen. Joni Ernst hasn’t announced whether she’s going to seek reelection, but it’s the type of race that Democrats need to reach for and win in order to win the Senate majority. The average Republican has a 7.1-point advantage, according to Baseline, but Ernst’s “we all are going to die” comment has complicated a bid for another term. Democrats are sorting through a primary with a field of candidates without a heavyweight. But Iowa is a race to watch to see which way the wind is blowing next year.
In the House, Democrats will be looking to gain at least one seat in Iowa. GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is in a toss-up race once again in the 1st District, but Zach Nunn can’t take his 3rd District race for granted either. The 2nd District could get more competitive if Rep. Ashley Hinson ends up running for Ernst’s seat, if the senator doesn’t run for reelection. And while the 4th District is reliably Republican, Rep. Randy Feenstra’s run for governor sets up an important Republican primary that will effectively choose the next member.
The Hawkeye State is also hosting a competitive race for governor. Iowa hasn’t elected a Democrat to be governor in 20 years, but GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds’ decision not to seek reelection gives Democrats a little easier path.
In general, Iowa is emblematic of the type of GOP-leaning area where Democrats should be gaining some ground if the cycle is shifting their way. But if Republicans are holding their own, then the GOP may be avoiding the typical midterm pitfalls of the president’s party.
Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. You can also hear more on the Inside Elections Podcast. His email address is [email protected].
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Overall, Democrats face a difficult climb to gain the four seats necessary for a Senate majority. But it’s nearly impossible to see them doing it without holding all of their own vulnerable seats, including Michigan and Georgia.
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