Election Impact: Don’t Call it an Exodus…Yet
September 2025
With eight senators and 27 House members not seeking reelection, it might be easy to build a narrative about a bipartisan exodus from Capitol Hill, or a massive retreat from politics altogether. But a closer look at the specific circumstances surrounding the exits paints a different picture.
Texas Republican Morgan Luttrell’s recent retirement announcement turned some heads. He’s just 49 years old and only in the middle of his second term. He wasn’t at risk of losing reelection and hasn’t angered President Donald Trump. And yet he’s choosing to leave Washington instead of running again. It must be because Washington is broken, right? Maybe, but he looks like an outlier.
Of the 27 House members not running again, 10 of them are running for the Senate. In other words, rather than fleeing the nation’s capital, they’re just seeking a promotion to the other side of the Capitol a hundred or so yards away. Those members include Republicans Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins and Buddy Carter in Georgia, Ashley Hinson in Iowa and Andy Barr in Kentucky along with Democrats Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi in Illinois, Haley Stevens in Michigan, Angie Craig in Minnesota and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire.
Another nine House members are leaving Washington but not leaving politics. Republicans Andy Biggs of Arizona, Byron Donalds of Florida, Randy Feenstra of Iowa, John James of Michigan, Dusty Johnson of South Dakota, John Rose of Tennessee and Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman of South Carolina are all running for governor. GOP Rep. Chip Roy is running for attorney general of Texas.
It’s possible that some of them might have stuck around longer if Capitol Hill was an amazing place to work. But it’s also hard to turn down an opportunity to be the chief executive of a state (one of one) rather than one of 435 members in the House. And there are 17 states hosting open-seat races for governor next year.
Five House members might have stuck around longer if it weren’t for a growing call for generational change or heath issues. Illinois Democrats Danny Davis (84 years old) and Jan Schakowsky (81), Jerrold Nadler (78) of New York and Lloyd Doggett (78) of Texas. Pennsylvania Democrat Dwight Evans, 71, also had a stroke earlier this year.
Along with age, Doggett was also cross-pressured by the new Republican-drawn congressional map in the Lone Star State. He was encouraged to step aside to allow Greg Casar, 36, to run in one of the few Democratic districts left in Texas. Some of Doggett’s Democratic colleagues, such as Reps. Marc Veasey or Julie Johnson, may eventually choose to join him since Democrats’ options are limited. But if they leave Congress, it won’t be because they were fleeing.
There are some similar themes on the Senate side.
Republican Mitch McConnell (83) of Kentucky, Democrat Dick Durbin (80) of Illinois and Jeanne Shaheen (78) of New Hampshire are on the older side. And you can’t blame DFL (Democratic-Farm-Labor) Sen. Tina Smith (67) of Minnesota for wanting to spend more time with her grandkids. Like many of the House members, GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville of Alabama is running for governor. (Tennessee Republican Marsha Blackburn and Colorado Democrat Michael Bennet are also running for governor but not up for reelection this cycle.)
Two exiting senators faced political pressure. North Carolina Republican Thom Tillis had a tenuous relationship with President Trump and would have had a serious general election race in a swing state. Republican Joni Ernst was looking at an increasingly competitive general election as well, even though Iowa is a Republican-leaning state. So, their exits weren’t exactly of their own volition.
Of the 34 total members of Congress leaving across both chambers, four don’t fit neatly into the previous categories.
Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, 66, would have had a serious reelection race in Michigan, but Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in the Wolverine State in over 30 years, and the midterm environment should have helped Peters. Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon, 62, would have had a serious race as well, but has always come out on top. And then there’s Luttrell and his Texas colleague Mike McCaul, 63, who announced his decision on Sunday.
There’s still time for a full-blown exodus, considering candidate filing deadlines don’t begin until December. Some members may have already decided not to run during the August recess but haven’t announced it yet. While others, unfortunately but understandably, may be rethinking their role as a public official in light of the murders of conservative leader Charlie Kirk and state House speaker Melissa Hortman of Minnesota.
The bottom line is that even when the retirement announcements start to pile up, they don’t always fit easily into a single narrative. It’s often a variety of factors that contribute to the exodus.
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There’s still time for a full-blown exodus, considering candidate filing deadlines don’t begin until December.
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