The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a non-partisan think tank based in Washington, D.C., recently presented its take on seven major trends its experts expect to change the world by 2050. Sam Brannen, director, risk and foresight group, led the discussion on these “Seven Revolutions,” as well as their implications on an economic, social and political scale. The Council’s Dasha Iventicheva, manager of the global public affairs practice, examines these “revolutions” from a public affairs perspective.
Population
CSIS insights: Immigration, migration and aging are three factors that will reshape the world’s population. By 2050, global population is expected to reach 9.8 billion, life expectancy will grow to a 76.8-year average and urbanization will rise to 68%, from 55% today. According to Brannen and CSIS, these stats could create challenges for the labor force, health care systems and displacement rates due to migration.
Public affairs perspective: The world’s population is growing and becoming more diverse. Public affairs, as a profession, however, does not reflect this. The Foundation for Public Affairs recently ran a survey to determine the industry’s diversity and inclusion baseline. A majority of survey respondents said they do not think public affairs is a diverse profession. However, almost all respondents think the diversity profile is improving. Council members can learn more about diversity and conscious inclusion in public affairs at a workshop in late October.
Resources
CSIS insights: Climate change driven by rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will be a main challenge to resources through 2050. Since energy use is essential for GDP growth, the biggest difficulty will be increasing productivity and promoting net-zero emission economies, while continuing to create economic growth and prosperity. Out of the seven “revolutions” discussed by Brannen, he believes climate change will have the greatest implications globally, including but not limited to economic, human and security costs.
Public affairs perspective: Companies and organizations are feeling more pressure from both internal and external stakeholders to prove their value to society. Recently, the Business Roundtable moved to redefine the purpose of a corporation, expressing its members’ commitment to providing value not just to shareholders, but to all stakeholders. Increased pressure from customers is driving more corporations to take steps to address climate change and other hot-button issues where government regulation is seen as not enough.
Technology
CSIS insights: Brannen compared today’s technological advancements to the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Robotics is already helping compensate for labor shortages, “the Internet of things” is blending the physical and the digital worlds, and artificial intelligence is quickly heading toward human-like cognition. The transformative implications of these technological advancements are significant and could shake up global supply chains, infrastructure, medicine and the way that machines and humans interact.
Public affairs perspective: Technological advancements are also changing the advocacy landscape, as stakeholders become easier to identify, track and engage. However, proactive issues management is still a challenge. While there is no one-size-fits-all template for creating an effective internal issues tracking mechanism, best practices include proactive priority alignment with business goals, consistent communication with both internal and external stakeholders, regular intelligence-gathering from reliable sources, and agility to shift attention to unanticipated challenges.
Information
CSIS insights: As information technology advances, particularly in the way we access and filter data, the preservation of truth and trust becomes more challenging. According to Brannen, while social media has helped connect users, it also lets them create their own reality as algorithms tweak what they see based on preferences, opinions and previous clicks. The risk of these advances is “extreme clustering,” communities promoting similar opinions, while blocking opposing views.
Public affairs perspective: According to Brannen, those working in public affairs are already challenged by the large number of media and information sources, as well as the rise in fake news, disinformation and the erosion of public trust and truth. Given this rise in news, data and arguments, which advocacy methods are still effective in Congress? According to a 2019 Public Affairs Council/Morning Consult poll, personal visits are still most impactful, Twitter is an effective tool for engaging constituents and national media is not the “enemy of the people.”
Economics
CSIS insights: The biggest change after the Cold War was seen in the economic growth of developing countries. By 2050, economic power is expected to be centered in countries like China, Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico. Economic development and changes to the way that companies and organizations operate will also alter the job landscape. Brannen notes that more than 85 percent of the jobs we can expect to see in 2030 have not been created yet.
Public affairs perspective: One of the biggest economic challenges for public affairs is successfully demonstrating ROI to business units and senior leadership. For some companies (especially those in highly regulated industries), public affairs is a must-have that is recognized for its wins. For others, it’s viewed more as a cost center. Setting up KPIs to show what public affairs success looks like is an effective way to demonstrate how the function’s initiatives affect day-to-day company operations.
Security
CSIS insights: Nothing has replaced old security challenges – they have just gotten more complex. Several of the “revolutions” mentioned above – especially changes in economics, information and technology – are making security challenges more difficult by enabling robotics warfare, the rise of small terrorist actors through social media, and economically-driven disputes like the current trade war between the United States and China.
Public affairs perspective: As corporations develop their own public policy priorities across global markets, they are becoming country-like actors navigating the international space. For organizations with a global presence, a “corporate foreign policy” becomes necessary to define goals related to market access, security and risk management, global, regional and local messaging, and stakeholder engagement. Effective internal coordination on these four pillars of corporate diplomacy is the key to an organization’s success on a global scale.
Governance
CSIS insights: According to Brannen, the governance “revolution” is the most difficult to predict. Democracies are constantly being challenged, especially as authoritarian rulers can hold on to power longer by providing economic prosperity and increasing intelligence-gathering on their own people. Trust in government is falling (Edelman), especially among younger generations who are not as economically confident in their futures as their parents. Information technology, such as facial recognition in China, is further enabling authoritarian governments to impose control over its citizens. Will democracy prove to be a resilient system in the face of these challenges, or will authoritarianism move us closer to a 1984-like reality?
Public affairs implications: As the global political landscape changes, global advocacy and relationship management with political stakeholders becomes more challenging and adds a level of uncertainty to business strategy. Knowing your audience, stating your value proposition and having an ask are essential components of a successful advocacy strategy in any market. When applying this strategy in non-U.S. markets, it’s also important to remember the political, economic and cultural context in which the conversation is taking place. Recognizing and acting appropriately on cultural cues and nuances can make a difference between a tone-deaf and a successful advocacy strategy.
Since 1992, Seven Revolutions has been an ongoing research initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies to identify the most important drivers of change defining our world over the next 30 years and beyond. Research findings are presented in a fast-paced, data-intensive, and visually rich presentation that uncovers the drivers reshaping the future of human population, resources, technology, information, economics, security and governance. For more information on how to bring the presentation to your next conference or off-site, contact Sam at [email protected] and visit //www.csis.org/programs/seven-revolutions.