Rise of ‘Euroskeptics’

This will be complicated by the fact that the chairmanships of many relevant institutions “will likely change and by the fact that there will be a lot of new members of the European Parliament,” Sousa says. “This will include some members who are ‘euroskeptics,’ who are skeptical of the EU itself. These parties — those who tend to be nationalist and populist — seem to be gaining in strength, some of which are actually against the idea of the EU altogether, believing it has too much power.”

The farmers’ protest is an especially vivid demonstration of this nationalist and populist sentiment, which cannot be conveniently relegated to the right or left. “These are constituencies that — much like some in the U.S. today — feel that they are not being heard,” says Marcel Halma, former diplomat and now senior vice president, communications and public affairs, at Solvay, a multinational chemical company based in Brussels.

“But they are not alone in their desire to protect what they have in a world that is changing very rapidly,” Halma says. “They have seen the U.S. move toward greater self-sufficiency in energy, for example, and in terms of innovation, while China and the Asian region generally have pushed far beyond what they were 20 years ago, in terms of economic power on the world stage.” While Europe continues to further its movement toward greater sustainability and global free trade, these dissenting voices, protecting what they have, and what Americans might call “protectionism,” are gaining in support. “How these different groups of interest develop working relationships in the Parliament remains to be seen,” Halma says.

Lame Ducks Until November

Halma says this year will be “a time of transition, and public affairs professionals need to be vigilant and invest in influencing the shaping of the new policy agenda. In the U.S., Congress initiates legislation, but in Brussels, the European Commission — the EU’s executive — presents its legislative agenda. Because the current administration will be a lame duck from April through November, we cannot reasonably expect any major policy initiatives, when coalitions and working relationships are being established.”

For the foreseeable future, Sousa says, “the action will involve who the new leaders will be, because there will certainly be new leaders and — if the polls are correct — a more fragmented European Parliament, as the more nationalist, populist and ‘euroskeptic’ parties will gain power. Even so, they are unlikely to be the strongest group, as center-right and center-left parties will still have the edge. Of course, we will also need to be watching what happens in the European capitals because what happens in Brussels reflects what is happening in the European capitals.”

Consensus, Not Confrontation

The great irony of the farmers’ protests is that they exemplify a style of political action that in the long run does not prove effective in Brussels. Confrontation rarely if ever works, and the more extreme parties with nationalist agendas are not good at compromise and consensus building, so the coalitions they enter into “might prove fragile and break apart,” Sousa says. “In Brussels, negotiation is the coin of the realm.” Groups that come with an all-or-nothing agenda — with an inflexible stance that might have a certain propaganda value in political Washington and score points with aggrieved constituencies — tend not to succeed in Brussels. “So, you must shape your message and your advocacy efforts accordingly,” according to Sousa.

And just because few policies of genuine consequence can be expected for much of 2024 is no reason for public affairs professionals to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. “Of course, you need to be monitoring these developments closely,” Sousa says. “You have to be learning everything you can about what the new leadership and the emerging coalitions look like — and who you can be working with” when it does come time for policy to be shaped.

“This is the time to influence the next five years of policy under the new leadership, by establishing your own relationships with the emerging coalitions,” Halma says. “Now is your opportunity to act. Don’t wait until the cooking is being done to try to influence the menu.”