Election Impact: Time Is Not on Republicans’ Side
June 2026
Even though the economic rebound Republicans expected after the 2024 elections hasn’t fully materialized, the 2026 elections seemed like a long way off. But that’s simply no longer the case. And it’s time to take a fresh look at what to expect this fall.
“Despite decisive victories in 2024 that put Republicans in power, the first year in control in Washington has been rough for the GOP, according to the voters,” I wrote in the January edition of Impact.
Just change “the first year” to “the first year and a half” because things have not gotten any better for President Donald Trump and the GOP.
In January, less than 10 months before the elections, Trump’s job rating was 42% approval and 55% disapproval, according to Nate Silver’s national average. Now, less than five months before the election, the president’s job rating is at 39% approval and 58% disapproval. The nation’s mood about the direction of the country hasn’t improved either. At the beginning of the year, 38% of adults said the country was headed in the right direction while 57% said we’re on the wrong track. Now, those numbers are 34% right direction and 60% wrong track, according to RealClearPolitics.
Those sentiments should be particularly concerning for the party in power because voters appear to be dissatisfied with the status quo and primed for change.
“It’s possible that sentiment about the economy and country could improve, and it’s possible that Trump’s job rating gets better,” I wrote in January, “But as Republicans are in a pretty big hole, those sentiments are difficult to improve quickly, and the clock is ticking on the elections.”
That point is even more urgent with the midterms less than five months away. And the trendline isn’t yet in Republicans’ favor. Trump’s job approval rating had started to improve by this point in his first midterm in 2018 compared to now, when it’s not completely clear that the president has bottomed out.
But how has the specific outlook changed for control of Capitol Hill in the last five months?
Fight for the House
“The premier midterm event continues to be the fight for control of the House, and the bulk of the past and present evidence points to Democrats winning a majority,” I wrote in January. “[D]emocrats did well in a wide swath of special elections and off-year general elections. They consistently overperformed with wider-than-expected wins in Democratic areas and closer-than-expected losses in Republican areas around the country. The overperformance hasn’t been limited to one geographic area or demographic group. That bodes well for Democrats later this year.”
All of that is still true today, including other analysis about redistricting.
“[E]ven the best-case scenarios for Republicans in those situations shouldn’t put the House majority out of reach for Democrats,” I wrote.
Thanks to key redistricting developments in specific states and courtrooms, the House battleground has improved in Republicans’ favor over the last five months, but the GOP majority is not safe. In January, there were 212 seats rated as Solid, Likely, Lean or Tilt Democratic. Now there are 206 seats in those same categories. Rather than needing to win six of 10 Toss-up races for a majority, Democrats need to win 12 of 14 Toss-ups. That’s within reach, particularly under the previously described conditions. The current Inside Elections projection is a Democratic gain of 2-10 seats. Democrats need to gain three seats for control.
Fight for the Senate
“Republicans have a decidedly better chance of holding the Senate,” I wrote in January. “With the addition of Alaska to the battleground, Democrats have a path to the majority. But, unlike the House, Democrats will have to pull off victories in at least a couple of fairly Republican states. They likely need to win at least two of the four races in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. That’s assuming they win in the swing state of North Carolina and defeat Susan Collins of Maine, who has turned back every Senate challenger in her career.”
That’s all still pretty accurate, except Democratic chances in Maine might be a little longer after nominating a candidate with headline-making baggage. Although Republican holds on Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas look more perilous since the beginning of the year. And now the GOP can’t ignore Montana, Nebraska and South Carolina.
The current Inside Elections projection is a Democratic gain of 2-4 Senate seats. They need at least four for a majority.
The Big Picture
The fundamentals of the election have not changed.
“To maintain control of the Senate and House, Republicans probably need Trump’s political standing to improve (more specifically his job approval rating) and they probably need voters to focus on Democrats, who are historically unpopular (33% approval vs. 56% disapproval, according to RCP),” I wrote in January. “If the election is a referendum on the status quo and the president’s performance, Republicans are not going to do well. But if the election is about whether voters like the Democratic Party, Republicans can buck history and maintain control.”
The only major difference between then and now is that we’re five months closer to the election, and things haven’t dramatically improved for Republicans.
The point in pointing out the lack of change from my January column is not to say that I’m infallible. The point is that political conditions don’t often change dramatically.
Some of the most common phrases in Washington and in politics are things like, “Five months is an eternity in politics,” or “A lot can happen between now and the elections.” While all of those things might technically be true, the reality is that voter sentiment most often changes gradually. In other words, yes, there are lots of news events that happen over the course of weeks and months, but that’s different than shifting political conditions.
In most cases, the party that’s saying, “there’s still time,” is often the party that is losing. And right now, that’s still the GOP.
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To maintain control of the Senate and House, Republicans probably need Trump’s political standing to improve
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