Election Impact: How to Get a Jump on Your 2027 Advocacy Plan
February 2026
Thanks to early primaries and extremely partisan districts and states, it’s not too early to start getting a jump on advocacy plans for next year. That’s because it’s possible to identify dozens of new members who will be serving in the 120th Congress even before the November elections.
On a basic level, primaries are often the most consequential elections because most states and districts are either very red or very blue. And in those places, general elections are practically formalities.
Looking at the 2026 landscape, 86% of House races are rated either Solid Republican or Solid Democratic by Inside Elections, leaving just 60 of the 435 seats with at least some doubt about which candidate and party will win the general election. It’s a similar story in the Senate, where more than two-thirds of the races (25 of 35) are likely to be decided in the primary.
As I wrote in December, the initial wave of primaries is not that far away. Voters in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas kick things off on March 3. Illinois isn’t far behind on March 17. Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and West Virginia host primaries in May. Then California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota go on June 2.
What does any of this have to do with advocacy?
Because some primary winners will be prohibitive favorites to be members of Congress next year, it will be possible to identify new lawmakers before they officially win and are sworn into office. Research into their background and relationship building don’t have to wait until next January when they arrive on Capitol Hill.
By mid-July 2024, Inside Elections had already identified 31 new House members and six new senators. That was four months before the general election and almost six months before they took office, and it was because they had won key primaries in very red or blue areas.
For this cycle, even if the half-dozen important Republican primaries in Texas aren’t decided until the May 26 runoff, that’s still well before the next Congress is seated in January. We’re also just a month away from knowing the likely next senator from Illinois along with a quartet of new Democratic House members from the Land of Lincoln. And we already know that GOP Rep. Harriet Hageman is the likely next senator from Wyoming because of the support she has garnered, even though that primary isn’t until mid-August.
There’s also a related hack for PACs. For PACs trying to boost their overall winning percentage among candidates they contribute to or PACs trying to balance out their contributions between Democrats and Republicans, a list of likely new members winning consequential primaries can be a cheat sheet. It’s not a 100% guarantee that the candidates will win, but the odds are very high.
So don’t get lulled into thinking that the 2026 midterm elections are too far away or fall into the trap of already being too tired of elections. There’s plenty of opportunity to invest time and money now that can lay the foundation for a more successful 2027.
Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. You can also hear more on the Inside Elections Podcast. His email address is [email protected].
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Because some primary winners will be prohibitive favorites to be members of Congress next year, it will be possible to identify new lawmakers before they officially win and are sworn into office.
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