A major challenge for Republicans is that no one else is Donald J. Trump.

One of the president’s superpowers is making people believe that his behavior is normal. But anyone who tries to emulate him looks meaner or sillier. Just imagine Vance or Rubio firing off dozens of tweets in the middle of the night with hundreds of words of criticism for any number of people. Or reposting an AI-generated image of himself as a Christ figure. He would be ridiculed because it’s not normal.

But Trump gets away with more than anyone else because he had an established reputation as an outsider and businessman at a time when politicians are equated with the plague. Even though he’s functionally a politician and has been running for office for a decade, Trump is given more grace because, to many voters, at least he’s not a politician. And he has a touch of celebrity for a unique combination.

That’s a stark contrast to Rubio, who has been in elected office for more than a quarter-century, since his mid-20s. The once-rising star of the George W. Bush-era Republican Party is now going to lead the MAGA base? Seems unlikely, even if he would be a sight for sore eyes among Republicans in the nation’s capital because he would likely be more predictable in his actions and policy decisions.

Vance didn’t climb the typical political ladder like Rubio and was more of a political outsider before his election to the Senate in 2022, but he wasn’t a household name. Vance wasn’t a TV-made celebrity with a reputation for success with family members auditioning as our country’s own royal family, like the Trumps.

Another challenge for the post-Trump GOP is the lack of a coherent ideology. While Make America Great Again is on the marquee with some roots in populism and nationalism, it’s going to be hard for anyone besides Trump to keep the ideological coalition together because the ideology is effectively whatever Trump says it is. And no one else has the power to pull that off.

Trump is well-liked among Republicans, including a now-famous NBC News survey from March which showed him with a 100% job approval rating among self-described MAGA voters, but the president’s power is more Machiavellian. According to the 16th-century Italian diplomat and philosopher, “it is safer to be feared than loved.” While some Republicans have come to love Trump’s agenda and approach, others avoid angering him or his supporters for fear of losing reelection or missing an opportunity to be his successor. It’s hard to see another Republican wielding the same power.

Even though Trump is still president, Republicans might be living a preview of the post-Trump GOP this year. Over the past year, without Trump on the ballot, Republicans have underperformed in dozens of special and regularly scheduled off-year elections around the country. Re-creating the 2024 Trump coalition isn’t going to get any easier when he’s not around.

With what could be hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign funds at his disposal, Trump is likely to have a significant voice in the race to succeed him, but whoever it is will need to form their own coalition within the party. And there’s at least a small chance that Vance will be president before the 2028 nominating process. If that happens, he would have a leg up on other aspiring GOP leaders, but would be judged on his time in office.

No matter if GOP leadership and elected officials on Capitol Hill, and even corporations or associations, might like the stability of Vance or Rubio at the helm of the Republican Party, there’s no guarantee that base Republicans will have the same appetite.

Yes, Democrats are in the minority, leaderless and without a unified message. But the intraparty infighting will temporarily pause in the fall to oust Republicans, similar to what happened with Democrats in 2006 and Republicans in 2010. Then the Democrats will go back to their civil war until they choose a nominee in 2028.

But even if Republicans revel in Democratic primaries and lack of direction, they’ve got their own identity crisis coming before too long.

Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. You can also hear more on the Inside Elections Podcast. His email address is [email protected].