Election Impact: Finding Perspective after Election Season Whiplash
July/August 2024
Despite the wild ride, the 2024 elections look like they’re back to where they should have been all along — close.
We’ve got an evenly divided country. Both chambers of Congress are evenly divided. In five of the past six presidential elections, the popular vote margin was less than 5 percentage points. The default election setting is competitive races for the White House, Senate and House.
But President Joe Biden’s historically terrible debate performance put that at risk. Former President Donald Trump’s advantage before Biden’s June 27 debacle felt like it was extending to inevitability to Republicans in Milwaukee at the Republican National Convention, particularly after Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13.
While Trump led Biden by only a couple of points in the national polls, that masked the current president’s struggles at the state and congressional district levels. Before Biden’s departure, Trump was on pace for a landslide, by modern Republican standards.
The former president was positioned to sweep the swing states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but finish closer than usual in Democratic states including Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia as well. At a minimum, Trump was on pace for at least a 312-226 Electoral College victory. That would have been more than the 304 Electoral College votes he received in 2016 and more than any GOP nominee since George H.W. Bush’s 426 in 1988. Trump might have even been the first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years.
Democrats in the House and Senate could feel what was happening underneath their feet and stepped up the pressure campaign. Their concern wasn’t rooted in a dislike for Biden or even a belief that he couldn’t be an effective president, but a lack of faith in his ability to mount the campaign necessary to defeat Trump.
Biden’s exit and Democrats’ quick transition to Vice President Kamala Harris certainly didn’t guarantee victory, but it changed the trajectory of the election. There has been a reset of the race.
Instead of a narrative dominated by Biden’s age, faculties and decline, there’s a more nuanced conversation. Of course, Republicans are trying to hold Harris responsible for the sins of the administration and are highlighting past policy positions she has taken, particularly during the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. But Biden’s exit created a vacuum for discussion about GOP vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance and Trump’s stream-of-consciousness speeches. Suddenly, Trump is the eldest candidate in the race by nearly two decades and Harris is the fresh face to voters who were unhappy about a 2020 rematch.
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Maybe most importantly, Harris has energized the Democratic base. While Republicans were unified and excited at their convention, it looked like Democrats were headed for a political funeral at their convention in Chicago. Biden was losing ground because of disaffected or disappointed Democrats either potentially staying home or voting for third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Harris’ presumptive nomination is still just days old, but the impact on the Democratic base is palpable. From fundraising to rallies to a surge in volunteers, she has energized Democrats in a way Biden could not. That’s not sufficient for victory on Nov. 5, but it is necessary. Every two years, I get asked whether a winning party needs an excited base or voters in the middle, and the answer is: yes.
If Democrats turn out at normal levels and vote for Democrats, that shrinks the battleground back to normal size. Long-shot states such as Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia are likely back out of reach for the Trump-Vance ticket.
Trump still has the advantage (235-226 in the Electoral College according to Inside Elections’ ratings) until proven otherwise, and it’s a fight for independent voters in six states that include 77 Electoral College votes. Where independent voters land might be the most important remaining question of the new version of this election.
It looked like Biden’s easiest path was the Blue Wall made up of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but that’s not necessarily the case for Harris. She may have an easier time in higher-growth, more diverse states such as Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, although she would still need another win elsewhere because the Blue Wall trio of states has more Electoral College votes.
Another key question is if or how Harris nets votes. It looks like she’s taking back ground among younger voters and voters of color that Biden was losing to Trump, but will the vice president lose some white, working-class voters who had a special connection to Biden but won’t feel the same way about a candidate from California? It’s also possible that Harris collapses under the scrutiny of the larger stage. But for now, Democrats are enjoying the new life breathed into the campaign and the new, aggressive tone being set by Harris.
Harris lifting the Democratic ticket to competitiveness is essential to the party’s chances in the House and Senate. If she can even come close to Biden’s 2020 performance, Democrats have a chance to regain the House majority and a chance, albeit a narrow one, to keep the Senate. With the all-but-certain Republican takeover of the West Virginia Senate seat being vacated by Joe Manchin, a Harris presidential win is necessary for Democrats to pull that off. But Harris being competitive also reduces the number of crossover voters that Democrats need to win in difficult states and districts.
While many of the recent events are not unprecedented (check out Roll Call’s Political Theater podcast for some historical context), the rapid succession has created a sense of whiplash. But even though it’s been a circuitous route to the homestretch of the 2024 elections, it looks like we’re ending where we thought we’d be all along — with close races up and down the ballot.
Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. You can also hear more on the Inside Elections Podcast. His email address is [email protected].
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Biden’s exit and Democrats’ quick transition to Vice President Kamala Harris certainly didn’t guarantee victory, but it changed the trajectory of the election. There has been a reset of the race.
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