Election Impact: What’s an Off Year?
December 2024
“What do you all write about in the off year?” asked a potential subscriber recently. It’s a reasonable and innocent question, even though I’m unfamiliar with the term “off year.” Considering the calendar year before the election year can be almost as consequential as the days between Labor Day and Election Day, there really isn’t any downtime in our elections anymore.
Even though the final weeks get the most attention, there’s an ebb and flow to our elections. While the last three to six months is a barrage of campaign ads, the first half of the two-year cycle often features special elections, retirement announcements and candidate recruitment, all of which are critical pieces to the election puzzle.
Special Elections
This cycle, there will likely be at least three House special elections in the first months of 2025 in connection with the incoming Trump administration.
Seats vacated by Florida Reps. Michael Waltz and Matt Gaetz won’t be filled until early April, and the race to succeed Rep. Elise Stefanik in New York hasn’t been set yet since she hasn’t officially resigned. None of the seats are likely to flip to Democrats, but stranger things have happened.
The vacancies matter because they immediately affect Speaker Mike Johnson’s ability to pass legislation and they could narrow Republicans’ House majority even further if Democrats win any of the long-shot races. At the outset, Democrats will need a net gain of three seats for a majority.
There could also be more special elections later in the year due to deaths or people taking other jobs. There have been four House special elections, on average, every “off year” going back to 2001.
Critical Positioning
Even though the 2024 results are still fresh, positioning for key 2026 races has already begun.
For example, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is already talking about running for the Senate in North Carolina — a must-win state for Democrats if they’re going to net the four seats they need for a majority next cycle.
The initial year of a cycle is also the time for incumbents to decide whether they will run again. By September 2023, six senators had announced that they would not seek reelection: Mitt Romney (Utah), Mike Braun (Indiana), Ben Cardin (Maryland), Tom Carper (Delaware), Dianne Feinstein (California) and Debbie Stabenow (Michigan). The jockeying for the open seats began in the “off year.”
In some cases, the entire evolution of a race can take place in an “off year.” Last cycle, Braun announced his run for governor of Indiana and Republican Rep. Jim Banks effectively locked down the GOP nomination to replace him by the spring of 2023, a year and a half before the general election. Banks raised money early and kept his potential opponents on the sideline in a Republican race that was the most important contest in a Republican state like Indiana.
Remarkable Stability
It’s fashionable to say that “x weeks is an eternity in politics” or something to that effect. But that’s only partially true. The Senate and House battlegrounds don’t often change dramatically, even over the course of two years.
Seven of the eight states rated as vulnerable in early January 2023 were on the final Senate battlefield almost two years later. Only Virginia shifted off the initial list of competitive races and was eventually replaced by Maryland when former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan jumped into the race. Three vulnerable Republican states were added over the course of the cycle (Florida, Nebraska and Texas).
On the House side, two-thirds of the races that were rated as competitive in March 2023 were on the final pre-election battlefield. And most of the districts that were not on that final map were barely on the battlefield (rated as Likely Democratic or Likely Republican) in the first place.
The core of the House battleground didn’t change dramatically either. Sixty percent (60%) of races rated as Toss Up or Tilt Democratic or Tilt Republican right before the election were rated as Toss Up or Tilt 20 months earlier in the spring of 2023.
That means early ratings can point correctly to the key races and aren’t an exercise in futility. And there are plenty of reasons to pay attention to election analysis at all points of the cycle, even almost two years from Election Day.
Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. You can also hear more on the Inside Elections Podcast. His email address is [email protected].
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In some cases, the entire evolution of a race can take place in an “off year.”
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