Election Impact: Midterm Outlook Less Than a Year Out
January 2026
“The days are long, but the years are short.”
That’s what older parents would tell my wife and me when we were starting our family, and it sounded awfully cliche. Now that our four kids are older, I understand exactly what they were talking about. And I think it also applies to elections.
It’s hard to believe that 2025 is history and that the 2026 midterm elections are just around the corner. With less than 10 months to go before Election Day, I thought it would be helpful to calibrate with the basics about where things stand and what’s at stake this year.
The Political Environment
Despite decisive victories in 2024 that put Republicans in power, the first year in control in Washington has been rough for the GOP, according to the voters.
President Donald Trump began his second term with a positive job rating, more specifically 52% approval and 40% disapproval, according to Nate Silver’s national average. But the president’s numbers inverted less than two months after he took office, and there’s little evidence his standing is improving. Trump’s current job rating is 42% approval and 55% disapproval, and Gallup’s numbers have him in even worse shape.
Fundamentally, there’s a clear disconnect between the perceived mandate that Republicans believe they have and voters’ reaction to Trump’s actions in office.
There’s also a disconnect between economic numbers being promoted by Republicans and how Americans perceive the direction of the country. Just 38% of adults believe the country is headed in the right direction, compared with 57% who believe the country is on the wrong track, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
These data points matter because if the electorate is dissatisfied with the status quo (the direction of the country), they will be more open to a “change” from the party in power. And if voters don’t think the president is doing a good job, they will be more open to having more people from the opposite party in Washington to stop him from doing more of the things they don’t like.
It’s possible that sentiment about the economy and country could improve, and it’s possible that Trump’s job rating gets better. But as Republicans are in a pretty big hole, those sentiments are difficult to improve quickly, and the clock is ticking on the elections.
Fight for the House
The premier midterm event continues to be the fight for control of the House, and the bulk of the past and present evidence points to Democrats winning a majority.
Looking back, the president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections, and the lowest number of seats lost in those cycles was five (1986) and four (1962). Republicans can’t lose more than two seats or else Democrats win control.
More recently, Democrats did well in a wide swath of special elections and off-year general elections. They consistently overperformed with wider-than-expected wins in Democratic areas and closer-than-expected losses in Republican areas around the country. The overperformance hasn’t been limited to one geographic area or demographic group. That bodes well for Democrats later this year.
According to Inside Elections’ race ratings, there are 212 seats rated as Solid, Likely, Lean or Tilt Democratic. That means Democrats need to win six of 10 Toss-up races to get to 218. That’s a reasonable lift that doesn’t require a political wave, even though one could develop.
There’s still uncertainty because of redistricting. Republicans are determined to redraw Florida, while Democrats want to do the same in Virginia. And we’re still waiting for the Supreme Court to rule on the Voting Rights Act. But even the best-case scenarios for Republicans in those situations shouldn’t put the House majority out of reach for Democrats.
Fight for the Senate
Republicans have a decidedly better chance of holding the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to get to 51 because Vice President JD Vance could break 50-50 tie votes.
With the addition of Alaska to the battleground, Democrats have a path to the majority. But, unlike the House, Democrats will have to pull off victories in at least a couple of fairly Republican states. They likely need to win at least two of Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. That’s assuming they win in the swing state of North Carolina and defeat Susan Collins of Maine, who has turned back every Senate challenger in her career.
The Democratic path to victory also assumes that the party holds competitive seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire. None of these are guaranteed. The whole endeavor is possible but still might not be the most likely scenario at this stage of the cycle.
Democrats need to follow Republicans’ blueprint from 2010, when the GOP took over five seats in states where their presidential nominee lost two years prior. Former Sen. Dan Coats won in Indiana, which Barack Obama had carried by a single point. Republican Pat Toomey won in Pennsylvania, where Obama had finished ahead of John McCain by 10 points. Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008, and yet Republican Ron Johnson knocked off Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold two years later. GOP nominee Mark Kirk prevailed in the president’s home state of Illinois, which had backed Obama by 25 points. And that doesn’t count Republican Scott Brown’s early 2010 special election victory in Massachusetts, just over a year after Obama had won the Bay State by 26 points.
To maintain control of the Senate and House, Republicans probably need Trump’s political standing to improve (more specifically his job approval rating) and they probably need voters to focus on Democrats, who are historically unpopular (33% approval vs. 56% disapproval, according to RCP).
If the election is a referendum on the status quo and the president’s performance, Republicans are not going to do well. But if the election is about whether voters like the Democratic Party, Republicans can buck history and maintain control.
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Fundamentally, there’s a clear disconnect between the perceived mandate that Republicans believe they have and voters’ reaction to Trump’s actions in office.
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