Be open-minded about possibilities. That should have been one of the main takeaways from the 2016 presidential race, and it’s still relevant today as these midterms could evolve into something different than expected six or 12 months ago.

One of the biggest mistakes any political handicapper or observer can make is being certain of what’s going to happen in an election months before it takes place and not being willing to adapt or change that perspective.

I’ve talked to many groups over the past year and a half and encouraged people to stay open-minded. Instead of making one prediction about November 2022, I’ve been laying out three different midterm scenarios in order of their likelihood.

For virtually the entire cycle, I’ve rolled out those scenarios in the same order. The most likely scenario was a GOP sweep of Congress. The second scenario was more of a split decision with a Republican House majority and an evenly divided Senate. The third scenario, Democrats’ expanding their majorities, unintentionally became a punchline in many of my speeches.

It was a perfectly reasonable and defensible analysis. Democrats have such narrow majorities in the House and the Senate, midterm elections typically go poorly for the president’s party, President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has been mediocre for a year, and there isn’t a clear historical case of a party in power improving its electoral prospects just a few months before the election. Typically, it’s a downward slide to the end.

But this cycle is testing those trends, and it’s time to reorder the potential outcomes for the fall.

While major events are rarely political game changers, the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision was just that. Overturning Roe v. Wade energized Democratic voters who had grown apathetic with President Donald Trump out of the White House and who were disappointed in the early performance of Biden and Democrats in Congress.

At the most basic level, if Democratic voters vote for Democratic candidates at the same rate that Republican voters vote for Republican candidates, it will limit the GOP’s takeover opportunities. Earlier in the cycle, Republicans were set up for big gains with a combination of an electrified GOP base, independent voters upset about the economy, and either disaffected Democratic voters or regular Democratic voters just staying home.

The midterm dynamic has also shifted a bit with independent voters. Republicans want them to remain focused on high gas prices, inflation, supply chain issues, crime and immigration. But they are now considering efforts by Republicans in various states to restrict all access to legal abortion and are consistently reminded about life under Trump with his various legal problems and investigations.