Even though some critics of President Joe Biden like to compare the conflict in Ukraine to the war in Iraq, there’s at least one key difference: U.S. casualties. Back in 2006, 58 service members died, on average, each month in the lead-up to Election Day. While the U.S. has sent billions of dollars to Ukraine and is considering sending more, troops are not deployed or dying. Those appear to be critical components of an election focused on foreign policy.

The Israel-Hamas war is a fresh and evolving situation that could develop into an election issue.

With at least 33 Americans killed in the Hamas attacks and Americans counted among the hostages, there’s a specific connection that creates a need for some people to place blame. And Republicans are eager to blame Biden for the Hamas attacks because the administration worked with Iran to unfreeze $6 billion in order to secure the return of five American hostages. Even without troop deployment (which is very unlikely), there’s a possibility the war in Israel becomes a political problem for Biden.

But foreign policy has a long way to go to reach the top of voters’ minds.

Foreign policy was tied for 14th on a list of issue priorities in an Aug. 24-30 Wall Street Journal poll. Just 2% of voters said it was the most important issue when thinking about the 2024 presidential election. The economy was first on the list with 24% of voters.

That doesn’t mean foreign policy won’t have any impact. Setting aside the fact that immigration and border security are on voters’ minds and can be considered foreign policy issues, the country’s exit from Afghanistan has had a lasting effect on Biden’s standing.

Biden’s job rating flipped upside down after 13 service members died in the attack at the Kabul airport in August 2021, and he has never recovered politically. Qualitatively, I’ve argued that that was when Biden lost the benefit of the doubt, and he may never get that back. It was Biden’s Katrina moment. He has now lost credibility on other issues, and the president had a 40% approval and 54% disapproval job rating in the FiveThirtyEight average as of October 24, even though foreign policy hasn’t been in the spotlight until recently.

So even though it looks like the U.S. will be involved to some extent in at least two foreign conflicts in the coming months, history tells us the 2024 elections are still more likely to be dominated by economic issues, unless American men and women are deploying overseas or the hostage situation escalates.

Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. His email address is [email protected].