Maybe most importantly, Harris has energized the Democratic base. While Republicans were unified and excited at their convention, it looked like Democrats were headed for a political funeral at their convention in Chicago. Biden was losing ground because of disaffected or disappointed Democrats either potentially staying home or voting for third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Harris’ presumptive nomination is still just days old, but the impact on the Democratic base is palpable. From fundraising to rallies to a surge in volunteers, she has energized Democrats in a way Biden could not. That’s not sufficient for victory on Nov. 5, but it is necessary. Every two years, I get asked whether a winning party needs an excited base or voters in the middle, and the answer is: yes.

If Democrats turn out at normal levels and vote for Democrats, that shrinks the battleground back to normal size. Long-shot states such as Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia are likely back out of reach for the Trump-Vance ticket.

Trump still has the advantage (235-226 in the Electoral College according to Inside Elections’ ratings) until proven otherwise, and it’s a fight for independent voters in six states that include 77 Electoral College votes. Where independent voters land might be the most important remaining question of the new version of this election.

It looked like Biden’s easiest path was the Blue Wall made up of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but that’s not necessarily the case for Harris. She may have an easier time in higher-growth, more diverse states such as Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, although she would still need another win elsewhere because the Blue Wall trio of states has more Electoral College votes.

Another key question is if or how Harris nets votes. It looks like she’s taking back ground among younger voters and voters of color that Biden was losing to Trump, but will the vice president lose some white, working-class voters who had a special connection to Biden but won’t feel the same way about a candidate from California? It’s also possible that Harris collapses under the scrutiny of the larger stage. But for now, Democrats are enjoying the new life breathed into the campaign and the new, aggressive tone being set by Harris.

Harris lifting the Democratic ticket to competitiveness is essential to the party’s chances in the House and Senate. If she can even come close to Biden’s 2020 performance, Democrats have a chance to regain the House majority and a chance, albeit a narrow one, to keep the Senate. With the all-but-certain Republican takeover of the West Virginia Senate seat being vacated by Joe Manchin, a Harris presidential win is necessary for Democrats to pull that off. But Harris being competitive also reduces the number of crossover voters that Democrats need to win in difficult states and districts.

While many of the recent events are not unprecedented (check out Roll Call’s Political Theater podcast for some historical context), the rapid succession has created a sense of whiplash. But even though it’s been a circuitous route to the homestretch of the 2024 elections, it looks like we’re ending where we thought we’d be all along — with close races up and down the ballot.

Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. You can also hear more on the Inside Elections Podcast. His email address is [email protected].