Election Impact: Three Deeper Lessons from the Virginia Governor Results
November 2025
Abigail Spanberger received national attention recently when she was elected governor of Virginia as part of Democrats’ effort to bounce back from a rough set of 2024 elections.
But there’s more to her story. A closer look at the former congresswoman’s ascent highlights key political lessons from the past that can help project what might happen nationwide in the future.
Donald Trump is politically mortal. After getting elected president to a second term after being convicted on 34 felony counts, Trump would seem to be impervious to political pain. But Spanberger’s elections demonstrate that at least some of the typical rules of politics still apply to the president.
Spanberger was first elected to Congress in 2018. It was Trump’s first term, and his job approval rating was upside down by 10 points. And, unsurprisingly, Republicans suffered at the ballot box as what typically happens in midterm elections with an unpopular president. Democrats gained 41 House seats overall, including wins by Spanberger and other women with national security backgrounds such as Mikie Sherrill, now the governor-elect of New Jersey, and now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan.
This year, Trump is back in the Oval Office and his job rating is a couple of points worse than it was before the 2018 elections. While the recent elections weren’t a simple referendum on the president, the dissatisfaction with him and the state of the country under his presidency laid the groundwork for Democrats’ big wins, including Spanberger’s victory in Virginia.
Without a course correction from the White House or a fundamental shift in public opinion in favor, particularly about the strength of the economy, Trump and the Republicans are at risk of succumbing to the typical midterm trend of the president’s party suffering at the ballot box.
Divided parties can still win. Republicans are basking in the glow of the Democratic civil war. Ever since Vice President Kamala Harris lost to Trump, Democrats have been without a clear leader and without a clear message. The Democratic brand’s popularity is at records low, and rank-and-file Democratic voters are revolting against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer as well as the senators who voted with Republicans to end the government shutdown just days after the euphoria of the elections.
But Spanberger’s initial election showed that parties can be simultaneously divided and successful. In 2018, Democrats didn’t have a clear leader or a clear message. The party was still reeling from Hillary Clinton’s loss to Trump. An appetite for change from Democratic voters led to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez knocking off Joe Crowley in New York’s 14th District primary and Ayanna Pressley defeating incumbent Mike Capuano in the Democratic primary in Massachusetts’ 7th. And yet Democrats still won the House majority that same cycle in the general election.
Republicans should be familiar with this dynamic. In that 2018 race, Spanberger defeated GOP Rep. Dave Brat. He’s the same Brat who knocked off House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 Republican primary in one of the biggest upsets in history. At the time, Republicans didn’t have a clear leader or a clear message as they tried to find their footing after President Barack Obama’s reelection. The Tea Party was still at war with the GOP establishment. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had to fend off a competitive primary from Matt Bevin in Kentucky. Yet in the end, Republicans gained nine Senate seats and 13 House seats in the general election to achieve their largest majority in nearly a century.
Democrats still want to elevate women. When Trump wins, Democrats look to women to rebound. Back in 2018, Spanberger was one of 35 new Democratic women to get elected to the House in the first midterm under Trump. Overall, the number of Democratic women running and winning primaries ticked up sharply after Trump’s initial election, according to Rutgers’ Center for American Women and Politics.
This year, multiple Democrats had their eye on the Virginia governorship, including Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney. But it became clear that there was more of an appetite for Spanberger. Stoney ended up running unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor, and Spanberger won the general election by 15 points. When all other things are equal, Democratic primary voters tend to prefer nominating women.
The ultimate test of that trend will be in 2028. There will be an opportunity for Spanberger, Sherrill, Slotkin or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to prove they belong on the presidential ticket. But after high-profile losses by Clinton and Harris, Democratic primary voters may be reluctant to support another woman in their desire to win (even if gender isn’t what cost them those races).
The first time Trump won, Democrats turned to Joe Biden. This time, California Gov. Gavin Newsom will be in the presidential conversation. He won’t be the only dude running, with Arizona Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker all as possibilities, along with Govs. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Wes Moore of Maryland. But Newsom has done a good job of elevating his profile and building his network, and the passage of Proposition 50 gives him a tangible victory against Trump.
Both parties will have to figure out how to digest the 2025 election results. Democratic voters will have to prioritize what profile or ideology they want when nominating someone for president in 2028. And Republicans will have to figure out what policy changes they may need to make to avoid getting wiped out in 2026.
Nathan L. Gonzales is a senior political analyst for the Public Affairs Council and editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan newsletter with a subscription package designed to boost PACs with a regular newsletter and exclusive conference call. You can also hear more on the Inside Elections Podcast. His email address is [email protected].
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But Spanberger’s initial election showed that parties can be simultaneously divided and successful.
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